Okay, so we know Cordesman, Biddle and Exum (kinda) came back from Afghanistan gloomy if not outright dejected. But if there is one man in McChrystal’s hivemind of pukka sahibs who must surely be able to provide us with an upbeat interlude, it’s Fred Kagan. Better still, his wife and fellow AEIster Kimberly was there, too. You might recall that the Kagans, along with Max Payne Boot, traveled to Afghanistan on Petraeus’s dime just this March and returned with great news:
There is no question that we can succeed against these much weaker foes, notwithstanding the support they receive from Pakistan and to a lesser extent Iran. President Obama’s recent decision to send 17,000 additional troops is a good start. While increased security operations will result in a temporary increase in casualties, that spike should be followed by broad reductions in violence, just as with the Iraq surge.
And the whopper:
[…] The odds of success are much better than they were in Iraq when we launched the forlorn hope known as the surge.
Needless to say, I’m more than curious to hear what the Kagans have to say this time round.