There is an interesting guest post in the MESH blog by Josef Joffe about whether the U.S. could (or should) “outsource” a possible attack on Iran to Israel, and an equally interesting comment by Mark T. Clark.
As it happens, I’ve been reading about the subject recently in preparation for a story, and here’s one scenario I’ve come up with:
- The U.S. launches a bombing campaign, destroying much of Iran’s air defenses and communications infrastructure. >
- The UN imposes sanctions, which last for 13 years, crippling Iran’s economy, pushing the once-prosperous country into sub-Saharan Africa-style poverty and unleashing a new wave of Islamic radicalism as Iranians seek solace in religion. >
- With the mullahs more entrenched than ever, Iran restarts its nuclear program — or maybe not. >
- Warning that if nothing is done “the smoking gun will be a mushroom cloud”, the U.S. invades Iran. >
- The nuclear program turns out to have been nonexistent for 13 years. Anarchy ensues. >
- Five years into the war, the U.S. media hails “major security gains”, but the Commanding General in Tehran warns that “progress is fragile and reversible” and accuses the Iraqi Shia Islamist government of supplying Iranian insurgents with weapons.