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Archive for the ‘Middle East’ Category

I don’t always agree with Anthony Cordesman, but boy, when he lets fly he really lets fly:

After two weeks of combat Olmert, Livni, and Barak have still not said a word that indicates that Israel will gain strategic or grand strategic benefits, or tactical benefits much larger than the gains it made from selectively striking key Hamas facilities early in the war. In fact, their silence raises haunting questions about whether they will repeat the same massive failures made  by Israel’s top political leadership during the Israeli-Hezbollah War in 2006. Has Israel somehow blundered into a steadily escalating war without a clear strategic goal or at least one it can credibly achieve? Will Israel end in empowering an enemy in political terms that it defeated in tactical terms? Will Israel’s actions seriously damage the US position in the region, any hope of peace, as well as moderate Arab regimes and voices in the process?

And:

To paraphrase a comment about the British government’s management of the British Army in World War I, lions seem to be led by donkeys. If Israel has a credible ceasefire plan that could really secure Gaza, it is not apparent. If Israel has a plan that could credibly destroy and replace Hamas, it is not apparent. If Israel has any plan to help the Gazans and move them back towards peace, it is not apparent. If Israel has any plan to use US or other friendly influence productively, it not apparent.

As we have seen all too clearly from US mistakes, any leader can take a tough stand and claim that tactical gains are a meaningful victory. If this is all that Olmert, Livni, and Barak have for an answer, then they have disgraced themselves and damaged their country and their friends. If there is more, it is time to make such goals public and demonstrate how they can be achieved. The question is not whether the IDF learned the tactical lessons of the fighting in 2006. It is whether Israel’s top political leadership has even minimal competence to lead them.

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Gaza: To the Bitter End?

The window of opportunity for a ceasefire in Gaza is closing fast, writes Judah Grunstein:

Any further, by which I mean Israel expanding its operation to enter the cities of Gaza, and the logic of war dictates that the fight has to go on to the bitter end. Israel can not afford to retreat under fire, and Hamas can not afford to let an Israeli  penetration into its urban strongholds go unpunished. In other words, this is the point of no return beyond which both sides must commit to a total, if asymmetric, war, with all the wild card scenarios that presents.

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