Obama’s Options Dwindle as Abdullah Bows Out

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Obama’s Options Dwindle as Abdullah Bows Out

November 1, 2009 by Jari

I’ll be very interested to hear what Obama has to say about Afghanistan when he finally lays out his strategy, presumably next week. How does he explain a troop increase to bolster a COIN campaign when the host government clearly has lost its legitimacy? Or will he use this as an opportunity for a face-saving exit instead? Has Abdullah just handed Obama the ticket out?

Posted in Afghanistan | 7 Comments

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on November 1, 2009 at 11:49 pm Schmedlap

Abdullah bowing out, purportedly due to the hopelessly corrupt election process, deals somewhat of a blow to Karzai’s legitimacy. I was thinking that this could give us some leverage against Karzai to reform his corrupt government. I hope that is how we approach this.
on November 2, 2009 at 2:23 am elf

“Or will he use this as an opportunity for a face-saving exit instead? Has Abdullah just handed Obama the ticket out?”

Yes. Let’s take it. I don’t want to put American homeland at risk. But the temper and tenacity of your wartime CINC matters. People called Bush stubborn and lacking nuance.

Well, that’s what the job calls for.
on November 2, 2009 at 5:15 am anan

Can the election be delayed until next spring?
on November 2, 2009 at 6:46 am Blaine

How does he explain a troop increase to bolster a COIN campaign when the host government clearly has lost its legitimacy?

Better yet, can someone explain to me how 40,000 troops more is anywhere near the amount of people needed to do an ACTUAL COIN strategy?

I will be interested to see whether this has any major effect on the current situation though. I seriously doubt this will be seen as Obama’s “ticket out.” All the reports coming out from sources around the White House have indicated that he believes withdrawal is not an option. If that’s the case, then what effect does this have on the Afghans? Does it have any? (I’m not saying that to imply Afghans don’t care about free elections, everything thus far points to the fact that they do, I’m just wondering how many of them have gone cynical and simply don’t see a remedy for the current situation).
on November 2, 2009 at 1:59 pm Jari

By “ticket out” I meant not escalating — or maybe a small, temporary troop increase followed by a gradual drawn-down with more emphasis on CT. In other words, cutting one’s losses without saying so.
on November 3, 2009 at 1:49 am Xiaoding

If they can get a small, temporary troop increase now, they can get one again next year.

Obama needs to hold a cocked pistol to some Generals head, fly over on Air Force One, grab some troops and bring them home himself. That’s the Chicago way.
on November 3, 2009 at 2:46 am Schmedlap

No. The Chicago way would be to fabricate ghost Soldiers on paper and claim that they were deployed. Kind of like they do with voters in Chicago.

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Obama’s Options Dwindle as Abdullah Bows Out

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