My apologies for the dearth of posts.
For once, I have no excuses to offer. I simply don’t know what to write. The war in Afghanistan is all but lost, yet there is no serious debate, only a shouting match. As for Iraq, no one really cares what happens as long as the Americans get out safe and sound, right?
Man, talk about disillusionment.
I sympathize.
You haven’t been writing because you don’t know what to write? You have no future as a pundit.
I know, and thank god for that…
Jari, Iraq is going generally well. The IA and IP continue to improve in quality. More than some people remain interested in Iraq.
“The war in Afghanistan is all but lost” I don’t agree. As long as Afghanistan gets sufficient foreign grants, the ANSF will retain control over most of the country.
You might argue that the war is lost in Helmand and Kandahar, but that is not the whole country.
I think the Afghans will need $250 billion in grants over 20 years, $120 billion of which will be needed by the ANSF. Do you think the will exists in the international community to fund the Afghans long term?
Anan:
If by “going well” you mean that the ISF has improved sufficiently to tackle what remains of the Sunni insurgency and the Salafi threat, and for the U.S. to start disengaging, I’m sure you’re right. As for long-term peace, I remain a skeptic, for obvious reasons.
In my view, the international coalition will maintain a reasonable degree of interest in Afghanistan, and will keep up the funding, only as long as its assets remain in the country. If ISAF crumbles, all bets are off as to long-term commitment.
Jari, Iraq is going well period, by objective measures. Oil production and exports are at their highest levels ever. Electricity production is at its highest level since the 1980s. Unemployment is down. Competency in the civilian parts of the GoI has improved enormously. One of the biggest surprises has been the improvement in the Federal Police (former INP + provincial QRF forces) and judicial system. Inflation is low. Investment inside Iraq is taking off. CNBC has a week special on opportunities to invest in Iraq.
Objectively, currently the 1st, 7th, 3rd, 4th, 9th, 8th Iraqi Army Divisions, and the Iraqi Special Operations Forces are the perhaps the best quality forces in any Arab military. The only Arab military with comparable quality forces is Jordan.
Many Marines and other advisors to the ISF boast about how good they are. Have never heard even one example of this from ANA and ANP advisors.
It is hard to see how this can be derailed.
If you want more info on Iraq, feel free to e-mail offline.
“In my view, the international coalition will maintain a reasonable degree of interest in Afghanistan, and will keep up the funding, only as long as its assets remain in the country. If ISAF crumbles, all bets are off as to long-term commitment.” This is what I fear. When I run different scenario models, I don’t see how the ANSF can win this war without at least $120 billion in international grant funding over the next 20 years.
It is extremely disturbing that the international community is not talking seriously about what Afghanistan will need to be successful over the next 20 years (militarily, and in terms of economic grants.)
Anan:
I admire your positive attitude. Alas, your set of objective measures is missing a few crucial issues, the most pressing of which is the alarming rise in Arab-Kurd tensions. Judging by what I have read — the new ICG report most recently — I see little reason for optimism. In fact, the country to me seems closer to all-out ethnic civil war than at any time since the 90s. The U.S. is basically training the IA to better kill its own people. (Of course, there are other hugely important yet unresolved issues as well, such as the return of the IDPs.)
On the other hand, if the United States’ only moral responsibility is to put Iraq back to the state where it was in 2003, then I guess we’re getting close: A police state with a decrepit infrastructure and a poverty-ridden population, rife with crime and ethnic antagonism, and with sectarian tensions simmering just below the surface. Yeah, that sounds about right…
The iraq war is won. & if they wanted it to be won 98%, they could.
They want to stay in iraq for the next 25 year.
If iraq was 98% safe. they would have to pull out 100%.
They just better hope it does not stab them in the back over the next 7 years.
The Kurdish Arab issue seems overblown to me. The Kurds and Arabs get along well inside the IA. The IA doesn’t have significant sectarian challenges.
There has been substantial progress on the KRG issue recently. Two divisions are being transferred from to KRG to become the 15th and 16th IA Divisions. The transfer of the KRG police to the IA and IP was finalized a few months ago.
“The U.S. is basically training the IA to better kill its own people.” This makes no sense. Violent attacks against the IA and IP have collapsed. Total civilian deaths in Iraq excluding terrorism is now less than 100/month. With terrorism, violent deaths = about 250/month, maybe a bit less. This is compared to 4,000/month in 2006. The IA and IP are doing a good job protecting the Iraqi public, which is their primary responsibility.
Total Iraqi crime and violence is at its lowest rate since the 1990s, probably since before August, 1990. As you know the Iraqi civil war took off in 1991. Many parts of the South and North were very violent in the 1990s.
“A police state with a decrepit infrastructure and a poverty-ridden population, rife with crime and ethnic antagonism, and with sectarian tensions simmering just below the surface. Yeah, that sounds about right…” This was Iraq in the 1990s. However, Iraq is improving now. With oil back at $80/barrel, expect much more capital spending on infrastructure. Violent deaths per capita in Iraq are sharply lower than in South Africa, Venezuela, Columbia or Brazil.
Watch the flows, not the stocks (or where Iraq is right now.) The flows are very positive. What impresses me most is the surprising optimism of Iraqis, including ones that I know.
I don’t understand your pessimism, unless you haven’t been following Iraq recently.
I was in Baghdad in April, so things may have improved since then, but talking to Iraqis did absolutely nothing to alleviate my skepiticism about the prospects for long-term peace. How is the Kurdish-Arab issue overblown? I have no reason to doubt the conclusions of the ICG report or question Hiltermann’s expertise, so if you have conflicting information, I’d be more than happy to hear it.
Re: ISF protecting the population. IMO the IA will turn into an Arab army the minute the fuse is lit along the fault lines in Kirkuk or Ninewa.
Re: Crime rates. Interesting. Do you have anything more specific?
If you would like more stats, perhaps e-mail me.
https://www.blogger.comhttp://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2009/10/kurds-will-suspend-all-oil-exports.html
Violent deaths per capita in Iraq have been below Washington DC levels since June, 2008.
Good data from the 1990s is not available. My best estimate is that crime is now the lowest since 1990 (because of the insurgency in the South and North in the 1990s maintained residual violence in Iraq.)
“How is the Kurdish-Arab issue overblown?” Because the GoI has ISF units that have many Kurdish members in At Tamin, Ninevah and Northern Diyala. I wouldn’t worry unless the GoI sends an IA division other than 2nd, 4th, or 12th IAD to the flashpoint regions. {For example the crack troops of 1st and 7th IAD.}
2nd and 4th IADs started out as KRG that transferred to the Iraqi National Guards. Even though both IADs are now majority non Kurdish, Kurds are still heavily represented. Kurds are also heavily represented in the At Tamin and Ninevah IP. Notice that the battle space in At Tamin remains under the control of the At Tamin ANP rather than the 12th IAD. This suggests that Kurdish/Arab tension is still mostly talk.
“I wouldn’t worry unless the GoI sends an IA division other than 2nd, 4th, or 12th IAD to the flashpoint regions. {For example the crack troops of 1st and 7th IAD.}”
Thanks. Will be watching this.