Out of the darkness emerges a new narrative:
Between 2003 and 2005, the United States and its allies were on the right track in Afghanistan. Under the leadership of Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad and Lt. Gen. David Barno, counterterrorism efforts were abandoned in favour of a population-centric counterinsurgency strategy. Everything was going fine. And then Rumsfeld pulled [...]
Archive for February, 2009
Afghanistan: The Myth of the ‘Golden Years’ 2003-2005
Posted in Afghanistan on February 28, 2009 | 3 Comments »
Obama’s Iraq Plan: Why Slow Is Good
Posted in Iraq on February 27, 2009 | 3 Comments »
On the eve of Obama’s big Iraq pullout speech, there has been a flurry of criticism from his own party and from scholars and bloggers over the supposedly slow pace of the withdrawal. Marc Lynch sums up the problem:
Just look at the calender. Iraq’s Parliamentary elections have not yet been scheduled and don’t even have [...]
Pakistan: How Vulnerable is Punjab?
Posted in Pakistan on February 26, 2009 | 1 Comment »
In a column in The News, Ayaz Amir paints a terrifying picture of the spread of Talebanism to Punjab:
Which are the elements flocking to Mahsud’s banner in Waziristan and Fazlullah’s in Swat? Not the big Khans or Maliks but the have-nots. Beware Punjab’s huge under-class which will be fodder and recruiting ground for the Taliban [...]
Afghanistan: McCain Presents Strategy for Victory
Posted in Afghanistan on February 26, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
“I know how to win wars,” John McCain said last July. “And if I’m elected President, I will turn around the war in Afghanistan, just as we have turned around the war in Iraq, with a comprehensive strategy for victory.”
I still don’t think he has a secret recipe for saving the day. But to his [...]
Sri Lanka: War Against Insurgents, Not Counterinsurgency
Posted in Sri Lanka on February 26, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
I have nothing but respect for Andrew Exum and the inimitable Abu Muqawama, but today he has a misfire.
In a post titled “Sri Lanka: The Last Battle”, Exum describes the war between the Colombo government and the LTTE as an “increasingly successful counterinsurgency campaign”. If by “counterinsurgency” he simply means a war against insurgents, he’s [...]
Pakistan: How Global Recession Will Benefit Taleban
Posted in Pakistan on February 25, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
In an excellent LAT op-ed on the Swat truce, Ahmed Rashid walks us through the consequences:
[...] This is the first time the government has surrendered an enormous area of northern Pakistan to extremists, who will govern by a separate set of laws. Moreover, the Taliban is unlikely to stop in Swat. Even Mohammed, who is [...]
Breaking: Stupid Metaphors and Pundit Quibbling Threaten Af-Pak Stability
Posted in Afghanistan, Pakistan on February 25, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
A metaphor currently in vogue among national security pundits goes like this: The “Af-Pak” problem is like a balloon. If you squeeze it too hard from the “Af” side, it will burst on the “Pak” side, which is way worse than it bursting on the other side, because “Pak” has nukes, and a burst balloon [...]
Pakistan ‘Embracing the Insurgency’
Posted in Pakistan on February 24, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
“One of the ways weak states try to slow the spread of a rapidly spreading open source insurgency is to embrace it,” writes John Robb, who sees an upside to the Swat truce:
Open warfare will slow, curtailing the bad effects of a unpopular guerrilla war on Pakistan’s military.
These groups can now be negotiated with, since it [...]
Pakistan: When All Else Fails, Arm the Tribes
Posted in Pakistan on February 24, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
Judah Grunstein stumbles across a 30,000 rifle “Sons of FATA” program that sounds so misguided I will probably have nightmares about it. John McCreary sums it up:
This is the Pakistani counterpart of a similar program in Afghanistan. A danger is that these programs upset traditional power sharing arrangements for local problem solving. In most farming [...]
Recommended: New FP Blog Tackles The Gamble
Posted in Iraq on February 24, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
Foreign Policy has yet another excellent blog up, this one a “book club” called In Other Words. The first book they’re discussing is Tom Ricks’s The Gamble, with posts by Christian Brose and Marc Lynch, who provide welcome dissent. Lynch wraps up by asking a crucial question:
[...] What if there had been no surge?
None of [...]
